‘Unprecedented:’ forming El Niño to drive warm, snow-less winter in Nanaimo

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This could mean another winter of rain but no snow for the mid-Island, further impacting mountain snowpack levels.

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'Unprecedented:' forming El Niño to drive warm, snow-less winter in Nanaimo

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Those conditions, combined with an expected warmer-than-usual 2027 spring, could mean more wildfire concerns next summer, unless we get a “good amount” of rain during the spring and summer months.

Merryfield said these “very strong” El Niños typically occur every ten to 20 years, affecting weather patterns worldwide when ocean temperatures are expected to rise more than two degrees above historical norms.

He said some areas of the world are already experincing it’s affects, including droughts in parts of Southeast Asia, wildfires in Indonesia, and extreme drought in South America, while coastal areas like Ecuador and Peru have experienced severe flooding events during past El Niños.

Merryfield said the weather pattern also affects marine ecosystems, warming the ocean by two more degrees on average, causing a delay in the spring bloom of plant-based plankton, which affects the entire ocean food chain.

“Another effect of the warming coastal waters is for migrating salmon to return to the Salish Sea via the north of Vancouver Island instead of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and there may be some unusual marine species that we normally would be seeing further south making their way into our waters.”

He said rising sea levels may also impact coastal B.C., possibly rising ten to 30 centimetres above normal tide levels, with some west coast tides already measuring ten to 15 centimetres above normal.

Merryfield said El Niño is “almost like turning on a global furnace,” continuing the likelihood of record-high temperatures next year, locally and globally.

“The El Niño is already here, and this warming in the Pacific along the equator is already into the very strong or super El Niño territory by traditional measures,” Merryfield said. “One thing that has to be kept in mind is that part of this warming compared to historical norms is due to the overall warming of the planet in recent decades. But even when that’s factored in, we’re very likely to have an unprecedented event.”

— with files from Jon de Roo, 97.3 The Eagle

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