Heavy rain is forecast beginning Monday, Sept. 25 with upwards of 50 millimetres of rain expected in Nanaimo. (File Photo/NanaimoNewsNOW)

By Alex Rawnsley

fall weather

Summer season ender rainstorm due to hit Nanaimo & Oceanside

Sep 21, 2023 | 5:25 AM

NANAIMO — The fall’s first major storm is forecast to hit in the coming days.

Blustery conditions are poised to begin over the weekend, leading up to considerable rainfall due across eastern Vancouver Island beginning Monday, Sept. 25.

Derek Lee, meteorologist with Environment Canada, told NanaimoNewsNOW it’s the organization of the storm which will see it deliver more of a punch than previous, weaker systems.

“We’ll likely start with showers as early as Saturday night, transitioning to more continuous rain by Monday all the way up until Wednesday. Monday to Wednesday time frame, that’s probably when we’re going to get the heaviest rain.”

Between 20 and 50 millimetres of rain is expected over a 72 hour period, with windy conditions accompanying the rain.

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It comes after a bone dry summer broken up by only brief showers, including a short but intense system which moved through Tuesday night.

Two to six millimetres of rain fell in short order across the central Island, not major amounts by anyone’s estimation but considerable in the grand scheme of what’s fallen in recent months.

While data from the Nanaimo station was incomplete, Lee said the monitoring station at Qualicum Beach airport recorded just 19.8 millimetres of rain from the start of July through mid-September, including this week’s passing storm.

The brief shower will actually help ahead of more substantial rain in the forecast.

“Lately the ground has been dryer, but these showers we’ve had the last few days or so can help the surface to receive more rain but that being said a lot of rain that comes Monday into Wednesday may bring localized water pooling especially with windy conditions.”

Lee highlighted the risk of falling leaves from the wind and change in season potentially blocking storm water drains on roads.

Should the region get the 50 millimetres of rain forecast, it would check off September’s usually tally but still leave the area well short after a considerable stretch of falling behind rainfall norms.

Lee said it would take more than one rainstorm to fully catch up.

“We have many, many months prior…which was in a deficit for precipitation.”

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