‘Not a very good news story:’ warm and dry April a sign of things to come

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The Nanaimo Airport saw 35.2 millimetres of rain, about half of April’s regular amount, making it the 33rd driest since 1902.

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Proctor said there is a clear divide in precipitation levels between the northern and southern parts of B.C., made evident by the April 1 report on mountain snowpack levels.

Areas in Central and Northern B.C. showed over 100 per cent of their normal mountain snowpack levels, while the southern half was below normal, with Vancouver Island the lowest in the province at 44 per cent.

Proctor said the possibility of long-term drought in May is likely “amplifying and becoming more extensive” for areas on the Mainland, with mid and high alpine regions seeing less snowfall than typical this winter.

“That’s really setting us up for less runoff moving forward, and less recharge of the aquifers….we’re probably sitting with somewhere between a 60-70 per cent chance of below normal precipitation for much of Vancouver Island for the month (of May)…it looks quite warm as well, I would say 70-80 per cent chance of above normal temperatures.”

Those conditions are likely to persist into the summer and even extend into the fall and winter, as Proctor said the La Niña pattern we saw over last winter was weaker than normal, bringing less rain with it than expected.

As that weather pattern fades, Proctor said an El Niño pattern is starting to develop and strengthen.

“While we’re looking warm and dry based upon what the upper air patterns doing, as that El Niño sort of intensifies moving through the summer into the fall and winter, it’s probably going to mean an even warmer winter for us, and even less precipitation for us as we get into our wet season…which is not a very good news story.”

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