Local groundhogs are predicting six more weeks of winter, while their counterparts in Eastern Canada claim an early spring is coming. (Image Credit: Canadian Press)

By Jordan Davidson

Groundhog Day

Vancouver Island marmot predicts six more weeks of winter

Feb 2, 2026 | 12:24 PM

NANAIMO — Local critter weather predictors say winter will stick around for another six weeks, in tune with what their more famous American counterpart is saying.

February 2 is Groundhog Day, with the Marmot Recovery Foundation in Nanaimo celebrating with their own version of events, with Vancouver Island Violet getting up early and seeing her shadow, calling for six more weeks of winter.

According to legend, winter will continue if a groundhog sees their shadow, and an early spring if they don’t.

Violet was in line with the most famous groundhog weather forecaster, Punxsutawney Phil, who also saw his shadow Monday morning in western Pennsylvania.

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Meanwhile, Canada’s famous prognosticating rodents in Eastern Canada are predicting an early spring.

Wiarton Willie in Ontario’s Bruce County and Fred la Marmotte in Quebec’s Gaspésie region reportedly did not see their shadows on Monday morning, which is good news for people tired of wintry weather.

A group of people who are keeping the Wiarton Willie tradition alive in South Bruce Peninsula brought the white-haired groundhog inside a see-through box filled with a bed of straw to a stage around 8 a.m.

Mayor Jay Kirkland, who per local tradition is the only person who can speak “Groundhogese,” stood next to Wiarton Willie and put his ear to the box before announcing Willie’s prediction of an early spring to the crowd.

“What Willie told me is he did not see the sun. So everybody knows what that means: one, two, three, it’s an early spring!” the mayor said to a crowd of dozens of people who attended the event despite cold weather.

“I have to admit last year when Willie predicted an early spring, there were some doubters, but it did come early and it came fast,” he said.

Fred in Quebec made his prediction after some singing and dancing at the early morning event in Val-d’Espoir. After Fred was shown to the crowd and received kisses from his handler, he was taken to look for a shadow and a child held up a sign that read “un printemps hâtif” — meaning an early spring.

South of the border, Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania contradicted his northern counterparts. He is said to have seen his shadow, predicting six more weeks of winter weather.

One of Canada’s most famous groundhogs, Nova Scotia’s Shubenacadie Sam, did not go ahead with her typical prediction event due to a forecast that calls for yet another winter storm in her home province.

The Nova Scotia government announced the cancellation, saying blowing snow could create unsafe driving conditions for people travelling to Sam’s home at Shubenacadie Wildlife Park, about 50 kilometres north of Halifax. The government said because she will not see a shadow, folklore calls for an early spring.

Environment Canada had winter storm and snowfall warnings for most of northern Nova Scotia and Cape Breton late Sunday, calling for up to 25 centimetres in some areas.

Last year, Canada’s prognosticating rodents were split over spring’s arrival.

The tradition has ties to medieval Europe, when farmers believed that if hedgehogs emerged from their burrows to catch insects, it was a sure sign of early spring.

Groundhog Day falls on Feb. 2, the midpoint between the shortest, darkest day of the year on the winter solstice and the spring equinox. It’s a time of year that also figures in the Celtic calendar and the Christian holiday of Candlemas.

— With files from The Canadian Press and The Associated Press.

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