Polls leading to election day on Oct. 19 show thin margins between the BC NDP and BC Conservatives. (Dreamstime)

By NanaimoNewsNOW Staff

polling the polls

Central Island ridings in the balance ahead of Saturday’s election

Oct 15, 2024 | 10:01 AM

NANAIMO — New polling data continues to show a razor-thin margin between the two leading parties ahead of this week’s provincial election.

An online survey of a representative provincial sample showed around 45 per cent of respondents supporting the BC NDP, with 41 per cent backing the BC Conservatives. Eleven per cent support the BC Greens while the remainder are either undecided or plan to vote independent.

The data, released Tuesday, Oct. 15, represents an unchanged support level for the NDP over recent days, while the BC Conservatives dropped three per cent.

“We see the Conservatives significantly ahead in northern B.C., also holding the leads in southern B.C. and the Fraser Valley and the NDP still dominating in Vancouver Island, although a significantly smaller advantage than the one they had in 2020,” Mario Canseco, the survey’s author, said.

Vancouver Island is proving to be much closer between the two leading parties than in recent years.

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All but two ridings went to the party which formed government in 2020, with the BC Greens capturing two south Island areas.

Ridings on the central Island may serve as a way for the BC Conservatives to win representation away from the mainland for the first time in a long time.

Data from 338 Canada, which serves as a statistical model combining opinion polls with electoral history and demographic data, suggests Ladysmith-Oceanside is “leaning” toward the BC Conservatives, while Nanaimo-Lantzville is considered a “toss-up”.

Both Nanaimo-Gabriola and Mid-Island Pacific Rim are considered safe seats for the NDP, by 338 Canada.

“We know the Conservatives want to show something on the Island,” Canseco added. “They need to win some seats on the Island and some seats in Metro Vancouver, not only if they want to form the Government but also if they want to have a more effective opposition.”

According to Canseco’s survey, housing, homelessness and poverty are the biggest vote-determining issues this election cycle.

Healthcare, jobs and public safety follow behind.

Forty per cent believe the NDP’s David Eby would make the best Premier, compared to 31 per cent for the Conservative’s John Rustad and 14 per cent for BC Green leader Sonia Furstenau.

Results stemmed from a survey of 800 likely voters in B.C., with demographics representative of B.C. overall.

Research Co. said it statistically weighted the information “according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia” and has a 3.5 per cent margin of error.

Advance voting is open on Tuesday, Oct. 15 and Wednesday, Oct. 16, with general voting day on Saturday, Oct. 19.

Full coverage of all the local ridings across central Vancouver Island is available here.

— with files from Bill Nation, 97.3 The Eagle

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