Island case counts continue downward slide, province gives detailed look at school transmission and VOC’s

Much of the rising case counts in Island Health is attributed to the southern area of the health authority.

There is a data discrepancy between Island Health and the province, based on the timing of COVID-19 results. NanaimoNewsNOW reports local verified data from Island Health.

Across B.C., provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry announced 1,205 cases. The number of active cases crested 10,000 with now 409 people hospitalized including 125 in critical care.

Three additional fatalities were confirmed province-wide.

With vaccination clinics continuing for those aged 65 and up, including Indigenous people aged 18 and over, roughly 1.2 million doses of vaccine from three approved providers were administered to date.

Those aged 55 to 64 are also eligible to receive the AstraZeneca shot through select BC Pharmacies, including over a dozen in the mid-Island.

Dr. Henry did not announce any additional restrictions or extend the current slate of restrictions on in-restaurant dining which are due to expire before midnight on Monday, April 19.

The local picture

Detailed numbers showed Oceanside pacing the mid-Island region in early April. From April 4-10, 65 cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in Oceanside compared to 55 in the greater Nanaimo area.

The jump is in stark contrast to earlier in the pandemic. From January 2020 through March 2021, 796 cases were confirmed in Nanaimo while only 177 resided in Oceanside.

Oceanside led Island Health in new infections per 100,000 in population for the week of April 7-13.

Case counts for the Island Health region for the week of April 4 to 10. (BC Government)

Variants of Concern (VOC’s)
Public health data shows the province continues to contend with two main VOC’s, identified as the U.K. and Brazil variants.

New cases across B.C. are split almost 50-50 between the U.K. and Brazil VOC’s.

Just under 50 per cent of daily case counts within Island Health are now considered VOC’s through screening tests.

Rates of variants are higher in the Lower Mainland, while they are levelling off in the Interior. Across B.C., 55 to 60 per cent of new cases across B.C. are considered VOC’s by public health.

“We now know that certain combinations of mutations are associated with certain variants of concern,” Dr. Henry said. “In particular, we have a pretty good screening test for B.1.17 (U.K.) which is a large proportion of the variants that we’re seeing causing disease.”

School Exposures and Transmission

Case counts among most school aged children continue to be under-represented compared to their percentage of the population.

Data from Sept. 7, 2020 through April 9 showed children aged 0-12 (12.06 per cent of B.C. population) represent only 7.44 per cent of cases.

Cases among 13-18 year olds account for 6.16 per cent of the population with 6.23 per cent of infections after a recent surge

Rates of cases in school aged children since the start of the pandemic, with breaks in December and March identified. (BC Government)

Two separate studies in the Lower Mainland, confirmed by public health, found 322 cases transmitted in schools from September, 2020 to March 2021.

Data from the province showed a spike in cases during and immediately after breaks in the school schedule in December and March, with reductions once students resumed in class learning.

“Most of the cases in the school setting were acquired outside of the school and there was little transmission in the school itself,” Dr. Henry said. “It does not appear to be a major driver of community transmission and I know there’s a lot of talk about needing to close schools to stop transmission in the community and we’re not seeing that as an issue.”

The next steps

The province’s main tracker for the future of the pandemic is the reproductive number (R), which Dr. Henry repeatedly stated needs to be at or below 1 for the province to emerge effectively through the pandemic.

If the R-number is higher than one, cases increase.

Transmission rates through the early portion of April showed Island Health’s R-number drop from 1.51 to 1.28, in line with the provincial mark of 1.26.

Northern Health is the only health authority to have a reproductive number under 1.

Modelling data showing future tracks of case counts in each health authority based on contact rates. (BC Government)

Dr. Henry said B.C. remains on a rate of infectious contact around 60 per cent of normal, which is far away from what is needed to bend case counts down.

“It’s likely that without you or them knowing it, somebody in your community and in your connections has COVID, may not be aware of it and is potentially infectious. The more people you see, the higher that likelihood will be.”

Rates of around 40 per cent are needed to curve the pandemic in the right direction across B.C. meaning a renewed call for social distancing, no public or in-home gatherings and only socializing within a family bubble.

Island Health’s projection is slightly better than the province with rates of 40 and 50 per cent of normal both expected to trend local case counts down.

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by NanaimoNewsNOW Staff

Island case counts continue downward slide, province gives detailed look at school transmission and VOC’s

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