Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry provided updated modelling information in B.C.'s fight against the novel coronavirus on Tuesday, June 23. (BC Government Flickr)

By NanaimoNewsNOW Staff

COVID-19 MODELLING

Life in B.C. returning to 80 per cent of normal not in the cards

Jun 23, 2020 | 4:18 PM

NANAIMO — New modelling data suggests B.C. is winning its COVID-19 fight, but defences against the virus aren’t impenetrable.

Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry confirmed 13 new cases of COVID-19 in the province Tuesday afternoon, none of which are on Vancouver Island. There is currently one active case of COVID-19 confirmed on Vancouver Island.

As the province moves closer to phase three of its restart plan, which is expected to be announced by Premier John Horgan this week, Dr. Henry said a return to pre-COVID life is not in the cards.

“If we go dramatically increased, into 80 per cent or back to what used to be normal, we can expect to see that we will have more cases and we run the potential risk of having dramatic increases or a rapid rebound in new cases.”

While cases elsewhere in B.C. had risen slightly, numbers in the Island Health region have been largely stagnant since the last modelling update in early June.

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According to the province, 25 cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in the central Vancouver Island area, including communities like Nanaimo, Parksville and Port Alberni.

Fifty-nine were detected on the north Island, with 47 in the south Island region, including Victoria.

To better track community outbreaks, the province is deploying some unusual methods.

Following a successful five week trial in Vancouver, public health plans to monitor waste water for traces of COVID-19.

It’s a technique which was used in the Netherlands, Finland, Germany and Italy.

“This is something we’re planning on rolling out and using in the coming months, particularly in smaller communities, as a way of helping us understand if there’s been transmission in that community,” Dr. Henry said.

Concern was expressed by Dr. Henry on the growing situation in the United States where cases are resurging.

She said what happens there directly impacts our situation in B.C., as does our own willingness to continue best practices in fighting the virus.

“Until we have an effective treatment or a vaccine, these rules for safe social interactions must continue to be maintained as part of our everyday life. We know that if we go too far and let that number get too high, we risk a resurgence,” Dr. Henry said.

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