An anomolously warm patch of surface water in the northeastern Pacific Ocean is set to drive a warmer, drier fall forecast. (Ian Holmes/NanaimoNewsNOW)

By Alex Rawnsley

favourable forecast

Warmer waters set to dictate coastal fall forecast

Sep 16, 2019 | 3:16 PM

NANAIMO — After a few years of unsettled and at times damaging weather on BC’s coast, fall 2019 could see the area move in a new direction.

Environment Canada forecasters are expecting a change in the fall weather, departing from cooler, wetter conditions in favour of a milder, drier fall.

Meteorologist Armel Castellan said typical drivers of Pacific weather patterns, El Niño and La Niña are making way for a more neutral weather pattern over the next few months.

“With that comes less of an impact on our coast than if we were going into continued El Niño as we had last winter, or La Niña as we had the two previous winters.”

In the short term, weather along the BC coast is being dictated by a patch of warmer surface water in the north east Pacific Ocean that experts are nicknaming ‘the blob’.

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“It’s similar to 2014 to 2016 where term was coined,” said Castallen. “We’re describing anywhere from 1.5 degrees to 5 degrees above normal for this time of year. It’s not to say the water is like a bathtub, but it’s warmer than it should be when you look at a 30 year average.”

The warmer surface water will impact many systems coming down the coast from the Gulf of Alaska through much of fall, and even beyond.

“Currently we have very high probabilities of attaining warmer than normal temperatures over September, October and November, and even perhaps December, January and February.”

While forecasts from meteorologists indicate a milder fall, Castallen is quick to warn that forecast should not breed complacency over a volatile time of year.

“In this period of time when we’re shifting towards big stormy season, it’s important to think about the preparedness level you need to have for continuity.”

Castallen pointed to an outage in northern BC during the evening of Sept. 11. The outage took over 120,000 people off the grid temporarily. In that situation, power was restored before morning, however the situation could have been much different.

“Whether that’s a go-bag with 72 hours worth of supplies to survive a power outage or telecommunication impacts on your life.”

alex.rawnsley@jpbg.ca

On Twitter: @alexrawnsley