Meteorologists from Environment Canada are calling for a warmer and drier summer than normal for much of Vancouver Island. (File photo/NanaimoNewsNOW)

By NanaimoNewsNOW Staff

seasonal forecasts

Hotter, drier summer forecast for Nanaimo & Oceanside

Jun 20, 2025 | 4:18 PM

NANAIMO — Expect a warmer, drier summer this year.

The summer season officially begins on the mid-Island at 7:42 p.m. on Friday, June 20, and with it comes predictions from meteorologists of temperatures above normal for this time of year.

Daily high temperatures in Nanaimo average around 24 degrees through July and August, but pinpointing how warm it’ll be across the summer months is tough, according to Environment Canada’s Matt Loney.

“[Forecasting models] don’t really show an actual temperature above normal, it just shows the probability of percent above normal. For much of Vancouver Island, I’m seeing anywhere from 60 to 70 per cent probability of above normal.”

Temperature forecasts are also backed by a predicted lack of rainfall into late August.

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Typically, Nanaimo will see between 25 and 28 millimetres fall.

“Precipitation looking drier than normal, and both of those indices are kind of going along with what we’re seeing from some of the other foreign model guidance, the Americans and Europeans have a similar outlook.”

Loney admitted long-term seasonal forecasts are difficult to pinpoint, and in many cases, confidence in a forecast is sometimes limited.

He added creating a seasonal forecast is “generally challenging”, as is properly interpreting the data which does come in, which can lead to a wide array of prognostications.

— with files from Jon de Roo, 97.3 The Eagle

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