Continued growth in Nanaimo is expected to see the population swell in the Harbour City to over 157,000 people by 2046. (Dreamstime)

By Alex Rawnsley

rapidly growing

Nanaimo’s population poised to exceed 150,000 people by 2046

Feb 5, 2024 | 5:25 AM

NANAIMO — A region which is already one of Canada’s fastest growing areas is showing no signs of slowing down.

New figures from a BC Stats report titled “Sustaining Growth: Population and Demography for B.C. and Canada” suggest the Harbour City will be home to 157,395 people come 2046, an increase of roughly 51.3 per cent from 2022 figures.

If true, it would see Nanaimo host the largest population increase on Vancouver Island, ahead of Langford, Saanich and Victoria, and remain the Island’s second biggest city behind Saanich.

B.C will see similar increases and could see the province go from the current 5.5 million people to 7.9 million by 2046.

Using Statistics Canada data, it’s believed Canada’s population will swell to between 48.8 million people under a “medium-growth scenario”, to 54.7 million under a “high-growth scenario”.

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Nanaimo will lead population increase between now and 2046, according to BC Stats projections, however largest growth is expected on the south Island. (BC Stats)

The report suggests immigration will continue driving overall population growth.

It details a country which “has experienced population growth at a level above other developed nations over the past several years owing to its high intake of international migrants”.

Numbers of temporary migrants coming to Canada are expected to continue growing through at least 2030.

Provincially between 2016 and 2021, roughly one per cent of all immigrants settled in the Nanaimo area.

Greater Vancouver (78 per cent), Victoria (five per cent), Abbotsford/Mission (four per cent) and Kelowna (two per cent) were the other main urban areas of interest.

Three per cent went into rural areas.

“While it is anticipated that the majority of immigrants will continue to settle in Metro Vancouver, the proportion of immigrants settling in Vancouver has been decreasing since the 1990s; for comparison, between 1990 and 2000, over 90% of immigrants to B.C. settled in Vancouver.

The report also outlined an aging population with a fertility rate “below replacement level” of 2.1 births per parent.

Vancouver Island and the south coast led the province with the highest percentage of people aged 65 and over, with 25.6 per cent of the region’s population.

B.C.’s average was 19.9 per cent in 2022.

“British Columbians are older, on average, than the rest of Canada and the province’s fertility rate is lower,” the report added. “The number of births in B.C. has been lower than the number of deaths since 2021, marking the first time in the province’s history that natural population change has been negative.”

Authored by BC Stats, which compiles annual looks at population growth in the province versus Statistics Canada’s census data every four years, the report is designed to inform key policy making decisions as it pertains to population growth and related fields.

Highest rates of population growth are expected in the Lower Mainland, however central Vancouver Island can expect between 40 and 60 per cent increases over the next 20 years. (BC Stats)

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