While December has started off on a wet note, Environment Canada says not enough rain fell last month, as B.C. continues to suffer water deficits due to last year's prolonged drought. (file photo)

By Jordan Davidson

more rain needed

November sees lack of rain in Nanaimo area, average temperatures

Dec 5, 2023 | 5:26 AM

NANAIMO — While November’s temperature was average, the lower-than-average amount of precipitation has forecasters worried.

Environment Canada meteorologist Armel Castellan said the average temperature last month was 5.6 degrees (Celcius), with a wet start and a dry end to the month.

“We only saw 121.6 millimetres (of precipitation), whereas normally we’d have in a typical November 197.2 millimetres, which brings us to 61.7 per cent of normal. So not extremely dry all things considered, but certainly two-thirds of normal is still fairly dry and ranks 29th (driest) on record for November, dating back to 1892.”

Qualicum Beach meanwhile, only saw 93 millimetres of precipitation last month — the community reports an average of 218 millimetres of rain in November.

Castellan said these lower than expected and hoped for rain levels are concerning considering November is typically the wettest month on Vancouver Island.

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As we head into what they predict as a relatively strong El Nino winter, further dry conditions can become a bigger concern.

“This year is concerning because we are dealing with the better part of the year and a half now of precipitation deficit,” said Castellan. “Come January when El Nino actually has an impact on our coasts, which is to say that it hasn’t yet and that’s part of the concern, is that we will be dealing with likely a warmer than seasonal winter and into spring as well.”

Much of western B.C. stepped into December on a wet note, as an atmospheric river began dropping heavy rain on parts of Vancouver Island on Dec. 4, with the Oceanside area being spared the worst of it.

Castellan said while the rainfall is badly needed, problems can arise when heavy rain events combine with other extreme or unseasonal weather patterns.

“This one happens to be coming on the heels of three or four days here with cooler conditions with a lot of snow falling in the mountains, and of course that could be bringing an added amount of melt because the freezing levels are likely to go up to 2,500 if not even 3,000 metres through this event.”

When it comes to the issue of how climate change can affect weather patterns like El Nino, Castellan said it’s difficult to say exactly how big of an impact it can have.

Weather patterns can be “ubiquitous” as climate change continues to have an impact globally, with extreme weather events building off one another as they stretch from season to season, according to Castellan.

He said prolonged drought conditions in B.C. for the past several years can be attributed to climate change, where a drier fall and winter can cause major issues in the summer, also known as the wildfire season.

“What we’ve seen recently are very warm temperatures that are not associated to El Nino in Canada so far, and what we expect at a global scale going through into 2024 and to the end of the year, is projected to be one if not the warmest year on record, and that would be on the heel of 2023 already having achieved that across the globe.”

— with files from Alex Rawnsley

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jordan@nanaimonewsnow.com

On Twitter: @JordanDHeyNow