By NanaimoNewsNOW Staff

New poll shows NDP with 7-point lead despite ‘dead heat’ between Malcolmson and Harris

Nov 19, 2018 | 1:27 PM

NANAIMO — While the NDP remains the most popular party, a newly released poll suggests the top two candidates running in Nanaimo’s upcoming provincial byelection are in a “dead heat.”

A survey of 594 Nanaimo voters conducted by Mainstreet Research found 39.8 per cent of “decided and leaning” voters would vote for NDP candidate Sheila Malcolmson, while 38.2 per cent support the Liberal’s Tony Harris.

When asked which party they would vote for in Nanaimo’s byelection, the poll found 44.7 per cent of decided and leaning voters supported the NDP, ahead of 37.5 for the Liberals.

Mainstreet said the poll is accurate, plus or minus 4.02 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Mainstreet vice-president Joseph Angolano said it’s “very typical” for individual candidates to be more popular than the party they represent, but whether people vote for the party or the person is always a toss up.

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“It really could go either way. If people are more inclined to vote for the party, then the NDP has an advantage. But if people are thinking about which candidate they prefer in this byelection, the Liberals are very, very competitive.”

The polling data found Harris most popular with men, while Malcolmson held a strong edge among women and those over the age of 65. Harris held a three-point lead among voters aged 35 to 49.

Among all voters, the Mainstreet survey found 7.7 per cent of respondents supported the BC Conservatives, 3.7 per cent backed the Greens and 13.4 per cent were undecided.

The Nanaimo riding has proved an NDP stronghold for decades. They’ve won the region in four straight elections and lost the seat only once since 1972.

In the 2017 election, outgoing NDP MLA Leonard Krog beat Liberal candidate Paris Gaudet by 3,800 votes.

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