Messy driving conditions are expected throughout the region on Tuesday, with a mixture of snow and rain forecast depending on a variety of factors. (File Photo/NanaimoNewsNOW)

By Alex Rawnsley

shovels ready

‘Modified Arctic air’ set to drive first significant snowfall in Nanaimo & Oceanside

Nov 29, 2022 | 5:20 AM

NANAIMO — It’s poised to be the first real dump of snow for the winter season, but just how much we get could vary wildly.

Environment Canada forecasters are calling for anywhere between five and 15 centimetres of snow beginning in the morning of Tuesday, Nov. 28 and continue through much of the day.

Meteorologist Alyssa Charbonneau said time of day, winds and elevation will create a wide range of conditions.

“If you’re right by the water and you’re getting a lot of warming air coming in in the evening, it’s likely you’ll go over to rain much faster and so that just makes it another layer of challenge [to predict accumulations].”

Winter driving conditions are expected, with City and highway crews out pre-treating key roads in the lead up to Tuesday’s weather event.

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The geography of Vancouver Island also makes forecasting tough, according to Charbonneau, who said big elevation changes over short distances create vastly different experiences.

Environment Canada issued a special weather statement on Sunday, Nov. 27 warning of the pending storm, which is forecast to bring winds upwards of 70 kilometres per hour to areas near the water Tuesday afternoon.

The cold air is coming from the Arctic, by way of the Interior.

“We call that modified Arctic air, it’s come a long way from the Arctic so it’s not quite as cold and frigid as you might think when you think of the Arctic, but it is cold,” Charbonneau said.

It’s “pre-conditioning” the region for a storm system off the Pacific Ocean to bring moisture, but eventually warmer air.

“We are expecting that warming to come in and that transition for many places from snow to rain that would happen Tuesday night, or overnight in pockets where that cold air might linger longer.”

Forecasts call for unsettled conditions through much of the next week, with another storm system set to combine with cooler-than-normal air on Friday, Dec. 2.

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