Temperatures are forecast to be well above normal for the next week or so through much of central Vancouver Island, bordering on heat warnings being issued. (Alex Rawnsley/NanaimoNewsNOW)

By NanaimoNewsNOW Staff

summer heat

Nanaimo heat wave a ‘marginal case’ for potential heat warnings

Jul 11, 2025 | 1:43 PM

NANAIMO — Temperatures upwards of six or seven degrees above normal for this time of year are forecast for the central Island over the next week.

Environment Canada’s long term forecast calls for daytime highs in the mid to high 20’s through until late next week, peaking with a high close to 30 degrees on Saturday, July 12.

Meteorologist Matt Loney told NanaimoNewsNOW the pattern is being driven by a strong ridge of high pressure overhead.

“High pressure is basically sinking air, so clouds can’t form, clouds must have rising air to form and that can’t happen with a ridge of high pressure that’s this strong, and in control. The sinking air will put a damper on any sort of weather systems, wanting to come in.”

While clear skies and warm weather is all but certain over the next five to seven days, what’s less clear is whether a heat warning will be issued as a result.

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Environment Canada’s criteria for issuing such a warning on central Vancouver Island includes consecutive days with a high temperature of 29 degrees or more, combined with overnight lows no less than 16 degrees Celsius.

Different regions of the country have different criteria for heat warnings.

Loney said they’re considering the current run of weather on central Vancouver Island to be a “marginal case” on whether a heat warning will be issued.

“The temperatures…into Saturday night would be the start of something we would definitely be monitoring, and we continue to monitor. The highs on Sunday cool off just a tad, enough to stave off a heat alert, but the operational meteorologists are constantly looking at this data as it comes in.”

Local officials recommend taking shelter and ensuring people are staying hydrated in such heat events.

In Nanaimo, recreation centres are available as cooling spaces including Beban and Bowen Park, the Nanaimo Ice Centre and Oliver Woods Community Centre.

Branches of the Vancouver Island Regional Library are also open to the public during the day.

Both Oceanside Place and Ravensong Aquatic Centre are available Parksville and Qualicum Beach.

Additional support may be available through local municipalities depending on the nature and length of the heat event.

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