A pair of central Vancouver Island ridings are projected to be toss-ups between the BC NDP and BC Conservatives heading into Saturday's election. (Dreamstime)

By Alex Rawnsley

tight races

Nanaimo & Oceanside ridings projected to be provincial election ‘toss-ups’

Oct 17, 2024 | 9:42 AM

NANAIMO — In a provincial election which many pollsters believe could come down to just a few seats difference, a pair of mid-Island ridings are under extra scrutiny.

Both the newly created ridings of Nanaimo-Lantzville and Ladysmith-Oceanside are projected to be narrow victories for whichever party takes them after general voting day on Saturday, Oct. 19.

Political commentator David Black said this election campaign has been interesting to watch, with a very small margin between the NDP and BC Conservatives.

“What’s happened since is that the Conservatives, who really had a tailwind and all the momentum in the world, have begun to lose velocity and we’re seeing the NDP kind of holding their own in the mid-40’s.”

Black said recent polls have the BC Conservatives winning around 40 to 43 per cent of the popular vote and the BC Greens carrying between 10 and 12 per cent.

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Projections published Wednesday, Oct. 16 by 338Canada, a website which features statistical models based on opinion polls, electoral history and riding demographics, project the BC NDP will win 49 seats, just above the 47 needed for a majority.

Analysis of Nanaimo-Lantzville as of Wednesday had the NDP’s George Anderson and Conservative Gwen O’Mahony in a virtual dead heat at 43 per cent, with BC Green Lia Versaevel polling around 14 per cent of the vote.

Ladysmith-Oceanside shows Conservative Brett Fee ahead by three points over NDP Stephanie Higginson, but the riding is again considered a toss up.

338Canada’s data suggests both Nanaimo-Gabriola and Mid-Island Pacific Rim are “safe” ridings for the BC NDP.

Black said one thing this election campaign has done is re-energize voters.

“I’m expecting turnout will be on the high side of normal. Typically in provincial elections in the last 25 years or so, we’ve ranged between 50 as a low to 60 per cent, and I think we’re going to be on the high side of that, I hope.”

Voter turnout across Nanaimo and Oceanside ridings in 2020 ranged from 55.14 per cent in Nanaimo to nearly 65 percent in Parksville-Qualicum.

Elections BC have reported record numbers of advance ballots cast ahead of Saturday’s election.

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