A show of the Northern Lights over Nanaimo in late February could be bested by some better conditions and clear skies over the weekend. (submitted photo/Dr. Greg Arkos)

By NanaimoNewsNOW Staff

bright night sky

High likelihood of Aurora Borealis sightings across Nanaimo & Oceanside

May 10, 2024 | 4:23 PM

NANAIMO — Night owls could be in for a treat this weekend with a strong showing of the Northern Lights and clear skies in the forecast.

A “severe geomagnetic storm” is due to hit the Earth beginning Friday, May 10 and continue through much of the weekend, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The activity from the sun is expected to be so severe, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center issued an extremely rare storm watch, the first of its kind since January 2005.

“Exact timing [of the storm’s impacts] remains somewhat uncertain. At least seven earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections are in transit,” the watch read.

The ejections from the sun stem from a sunspot cluster roughly 16 times the diameter of Earth and more activity from the same region is still expected.

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Each eruption — known as a coronal mass ejection — can contain billions of tons of plasma and magnetic field from the sun’s outer atmosphere, or corona.

In addition to creating the colourful waves in the sky, impacts to communication systems, GPS and power grid are also possible.

NOAA added in their bulletin this type of activity from the sun is very uncommon.

“Only three severe geomagnetic storms have occurred so far this solar cycle (since 2019); the last was a brief occurrence on March 23. This is SWPC’s first G4 watch since 2005. The last extreme (G5) event occurred…in 2003.”

NOAA already has alerted operators of power plants and spacecraft in orbit to take precautions.

“As far as the worst situation expected here at Earth, that’s tough to say and I wouldn’t want to speculate on that,” said NOAA space weather forecaster Shawn Dahl. “However, severe level is pretty extraordinary, It’s a very rare event to happen.”

NOAA said the sun produced strong solar flares beginning Wednesday, resulting in five outbursts of plasma capable of disrupting satellites in orbit and power grids here on Earth.

An extreme geomagnetic storm in 2003 took out power in Sweden and damaged power transformers in South Africa.

The latest storm could produce northern lights as far south as the south-eastern United States.

— with files from The Associated Press

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