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Marmot populations on Vancouver Island have exploded over recent years, thanks to work of the Marmot Recovery Foundation. They also take charge of the local Groundhog Day prediction. (File photo/Vancouver Island Marmot Recovery Foundation)
spring or winter?

‘She’s predicted…:’ Van-Isle Violet puts perfect prognostication record on the line

Feb 2, 2024 | 8:49 AM

NANAIMO — After correctly predicting an extended winter in each of the last two years, Van Isle Violet sees no reason to change her mind.

Helped by staff at the Vancouver Island Marmot Recovery Foundation, Violet was briefly awoken from her winter slumber to see her shadow and predict another six weeks of winter weather.

Foundation executive director Adam Taylor understands it’s not the news most wanted to hear.

“I’m standing behind Violet’s accuracy, so far she’s got it 100 per cent right and I think it’s time to strap the skis back on and get ready for some real winter here.”

Taylor touted Violet’s predictions over the last two years, her first two since assuming the role in 2022.

“Violet herself, she’s pretty young with two predictions so far. Her first prediction was a longer winter in 2022 and we were skiing on Father’s Day that year, you can’t get much more accurate than that. Then last year, we had a good winter blast towards the end of the year as well.”

The annual tradition dictates if a groundhog, or marmot in this case, sees its shadow then six more weeks of winter are due.

No shadow indicates an early spring.

Violet’s prediction seems to fly in the face of others across North America.

Most famous among Violet’s colleagues, Punxsutawney Phil based in Pennsylvania, did not see his shadow and went back to sleep amid cheers and celebrations early Friday morning.

Canadian marmots seemed to agree with Phil.

Ontario’s Wiarton Willie, Nova Scotia’s Shubenacadie Sam and Quebec’s Fred la Marmotte all reportedly did not see their shadows on Friday morning.

However Violet’s prediction ultimately turns out, the last 12 months were nothing but “thrilling” for the Foundation, according to Taylor.

He said finding three new colonies of marmots in Strathcona Park, near the Comox Valley, was completely unexpected.

“In Nanaimo Lakes, there was a colony the year before where we’d seen just a single marmot at that colony…we went back this year to spend a little more time and there’s a small but seemingly successful colony at the site.”

It was validation for work the Foundation did and continues to do to preserve the animal’s existence.

Taylor said in 2003, only 22 Vancouver Island marmots were recorded in the wild, with total numbers under 100 when including marmots in captivity.

“That is really teetering on the brink, really as close as you can get to extinction while still managing to pull the species back.”

He said the challenge now is to continue restoring numbers, protecting habitat and ensuring the long term health of the species.

“The marmots had a lot of babies last year which is fantastic but they often only breed every other year. We might see a decline in the number of pups this year, that’s not too alarming…but we’re really hoping we see more marmots and we find some more, new colonies.”

Weather predictions every Feb. 2 exploded in popularity after the 1993 movie “Groundhog Day”, however folklorists say the Groundhog Day ritual may have something to do with Feb. 2 landing midway between winter solstice and spring equinox.

In medieval Europe, farmers believed that if hedgehogs emerged from their burrows to catch insects, that was a sure sign of an early spring.

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