Chances are dwindling rapidly for a white Christmas in Nanaimo, but it could only take a short drive find powder over the holidays. (File photo/NanaimoNewsNOW)

By Alex Rawnsley

snow for santa?

‘It’s going to be interesting:’ slim chance remains for a Nanaimo white Christmas

Dec 20, 2023 | 5:29 AM

NANAIMO — Those dreaming of a white Christmas could have their wish come true, but odds are you’re more likely to catch Santa sliding down your chimney.

Persistent rainfall and above normal temperatures means time is running out for snow to come before Christmas Day, but meteorologists aren’t discounting the possibility just yet.

Lisa Erven, Environment Canada meteorologist, told NanaimoNewsNOW a cooling trend due over the weekend could turn some of the rainfall we’re seeing into flurries.

“It’s going to be interesting to see as we move closer to the event, the timing of that storm and as precipitation gets going, are we still dealing with that lower freezing levels and where is it we’re most likely to see snow?”

However, even the best case scenarios at the moment suggest snowfall would be limited to higher elevations.

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Erven said freezing levels around 300 to 500 metres above sea level are expected, with rain for coastal areas.

It’s poised to make holiday travel a little tricky for some.

“It’s not only imperative to check your forecasts for where you live and your destination, but also take a look at the forecasts along your route especially if you’re driving over the Malahat, Hwy. 4 or heading into Interior B.C. There’s going to be winter weather somewhere and it’s best to be prepared.”

Snow started in mid-November last year with follow-up flurries and frigid temperatures through the rest of 2022.

The year prior, the first significant snowfall came in the first week of December, with a fresh dump of snow on Christmas Day itself.

Forecasters officially define a ‘white Christmas’ as having at least two centimetres of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. on Christmas Day.

While statistics were not available for either the Nanaimo or Qualicum Beach airport monitoring stations, Erven said an official white Christmas is recorded at Victoria airport roughly 12 per cent of the the time.

“And for a ‘perfect Christmas’ which would require not only the snow on ground but also snow falling at some point throughout the day on Christmas, it’s even lower at a six per cent chance of a perfect Christmas,” Erven added.

The fact the province is experiencing an El Nino weather pattern at the moment is further reducing the odds.

Through the first half of December, Nanaimo has seen consistent temperatures at least a few degrees above normal.

Comox and Campbell River are poised to rank in the top five warmest December’s ever, according to Erven.

— with files from Ian Holmes

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