By Canadian Press

Canada’s oil output would plummet by 2050 in a net-zero world, new modelling shows

Jun 20, 2023 | 11:03 AM

CALGARY — New modelling from the Canada Energy Regulator suggests Canadian oil production will plummet by 2050 if the world achieves its Paris target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions within that time.

The regulator says if emissions regulations successfully limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, fossil fuel use will drop by 65 per cent from 2021 to 2050.

That would prompt a collapse in global oil prices, to as low as US$35 per barrel by 2030 and US$24 per barrel by 2050.

The regulator says as a result of these low prices, Canadian crude oil production would fall to 1.2 million barrels per day by 2050, 76 per cent below 2022 levels. 

But the Canada Energy Regulator says less ambitious global climate action would keep oil prices much higher for longer.

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Its model shows that if Canada achieves net-zero by 2050, but large countries like China and India move at a slower pace, global oil prices will remain above US$60 per barrel and Canadian oil production will decline by just 22 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 20, 2023.

The Canadian Press