‘I think we’re to the point now where it has to happen:’ ICF pitches profitable business case for rail resumption

The proposal comes amid a deadline for the provincial government and ICF following a September 2021 appeals court ruling which requires a firm decision on the future of the rail line within 18 months.

Snaw-Naw-As First Nation had argued the land should be returned to them considering it was no longer being used.

Projected service levels
The ICF’s pitch involves four trains: two running as commuter service for the Victoria area in peak hours and another two running Island-wide trips.

Of the trains which would service the central Island, one would leave Duncan in the morning and service those commuting to Victoria. From there, it would travel north through Ladysmith, Nanaimo, Parksville, Qualicum Beach and eventually Courtenay.

A second regional train would start in Courtenay and travel south, making a nearly four hour trip to Victoria before returning in the evening.

In total, three trains a day would make stops on the central Island travelling north and south.

“We think there’s a massive opportunity there to do a lot of things, take trucks off the highway, improve greenhouse gas emissions and give shippers another alternative to Vancouver,” Stevenson said.

Breaking down the cost
The ICF’s cost estimates were based on an April 2020 study by the provincial government which ball-parked costs ranging from $326 to $728 million, plus an additional $600 million for Victoria commuter service.

Stevenson said they landed in the middle and based their figures on the intermediate option pitched from the province, but took exception to two contingencies, totalling 97 per cent, factored into the final cost.

“This is not a new build, we don’t need $30 million worth of engineering, we don’t need an additional $120 million put on top of this for managing this project, this is a very simple thing.”

Their business case still contains a 50 per cent contingency and construction figures are based on forecasted 2023 numbers.

Who and what are riding the rails?
A big part of the ICF’s plan is to create a modal shift, provide a service to get people to give up the keys to their car for a trip.

The ICF’s business case conservatively projects being able to break even at start-up, potentially profiting upwards of $4 to $11 million dollars per year after launch.

Stevenson pinned those estimates on being able to get between four and eight per cent of people travelling Island highways to make a change.

“You take a look at Duncan as an example, we know for a fact that today there’s 300-400 people taking buses from Duncan to Victoria every single day. So our guess is you start a train service that’s going to run during those peak hours, it’s likely going to take all of those people.”

Costs for inter-city service ranged from $19 for a one-way fare to $200 for a monthly pass.

However, a major part of the plan doesn’t involve passengers at all.

Restoring cargo service on the line is essential to the business model, connecting ports in Nanaimo and Port Alberni with other parts of the Island.

“We took a look at what was happening when the service was shut down, we know the number of cars handled in those years, we know that today we’re handling 25 per cent of that, so if we can double that we’re in good shape,” Stevenson said.

Approximately 1,200 carloads of freight go to and from the Island each year according to the ICF, which they expect to see grow as service is restored.

Continued use of the land, which goes through the traditional territory of multiple First Nations is seen as a potential hurdle for the ICF and provincial government to overcome (Alex Rawnsley/NanaimoNewsNOW)

What’s stopping the service?
Putting aside cost and political will to make the investment, one major hurdle stands in the way for the ICF.

Stevenson said the provincial and federal governments need to work with First Nations along the line to properly reconcile the acquisition of lands in their traditional territories years and years ago.

He called it a “pre-requisite to getting this railroad built.”

“The First Nations have never, ever been able to deal with that issue with the provincial government. As part of this business case, one of the things it says in there is that those are issues that are the responsibility of government, provincial and federal government.”

There have also been repeated calls for the prospect of rail service to be abandoned on the aging line, and instead transform the strip of land into a bike and walking trail.

What’s next?
The ICF’s pitch to the province is designed as a starting point to have discussions.

It calls for the provincial government to form a working group to explore the idea ahead of the March 2023 deadline imposed by the courts in relation to the Snaw-Naw-As appeal.

“We owe it to the people of the Island to bring it to closure and I think we’re there,” Stevenson said. “I think we’re to the point now where it has to happen.”

The complete business case from the Island Corridor Foundation is available by clicking here.

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by NanaimoNewsNOW Staff

‘I think we’re to the point now where it has to happen:’ ICF pitches profitable business case for rail resumption

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