Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry continues to believe the province is on the way down from the fifth wave of COVID-19, comparing B.C.'s path to other cities, states and countries. (BC Government)

By NanaimoNewsNOW Staff

COVID MODELLING

B.C. faring better than most amid fifth COVID wave

Jan 14, 2022 | 11:05 AM

NANAIMO — The worst may be over in the fifth wave of COVID-19 cases, driven by the Omicron variant.

Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry presented another round of detailed case and hospitalization data during a briefing on Friday, Jan. 14. The data clarified Henry’s statement earlier in the week indicating Omicron may be subsiding in B.C.

Henry said a multitude of surveillance strategies from wastewater surveillance to PCR testing results all report a crest in early January and a steady decline since.

“Certainly not back down to the levels that we were seeing…in the summer for example, but on that downward trajectory. This gives us more confidence that we are, at least in terms of transmission in the community, we’ve reached the peak and are starting on that downtown trajectory.”

B.C. continues to see less transmission and case rates when compared to other provinces. (BC Government)

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Case Rates & Hospitalizations
Overall, B.C.’s rate of cases per 100,000 people was well below than many other provinces through the first 11 days of January.

Island Health was just below the provincial average at 50 people per 100,000, similar to Vancouver Coastal and Interior Health.

At the peak of the Omicron wave, the province saw a case rate of around 60 people. Alberta (+/- 120), Manitoba (+/- 165) and Quebec (200+) all saw significantly higher illness.

Hospitalizations, including admission to intensive care, followed similar trends while British Columbia avoided a spike in fatalities reported in Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec.

The genome sequencing of confirmed cases continues showing both Omicron and Delta as the dominant strains, however Delta is showing more in hospitals and more serious illness.

Those aged 80 and up continue to be disproportionately hospitalized as a result of illness.

B.C. public health is remaining under the assumption the province is on the way down from the fifth wave.

It’s compared local data with trends seen in other major centres, states and countries where Omicron became the dominant strain with B.C. following a similar path.

Vaccination continues to be the driving factor behind hospitalizations and serious outcomes as a result of COVID-19 exposure. (BC Government)

Vaccination Rates & Impacts
The number of people rolling up their sleeves continues to grow, slowly across the province.

As of Thursday, Jan. 13, 89.5 per cent of those aged 12 and up have received two doses while 29.2 per cent got a booster shot.

Vaccination rates in Nanaimo (88 per cent) and Oceanside (87 per cent) are just below the provincial average.

“Vaccination protects you from that severe illness and…that level of protection is what’s getting us through this wave without overwhelming our hospital system, stretched as it is,” Henry said.

Between Dec. 11 and Jan. 10, those without a vaccination history for COVID-19 accounted for 47 per cent of hospital visits, 69 per cent of critical care cases and 63 per cent of deaths while accounting for 17 per cent of total cases.

The data showed those remaining unvaccinated are 12 times more likely to being in hospital, 27 times more likely for critical care and 40 times more likely to die from COVID compared to the vaccinated.

“We know that even if you’re vaccinated, this Omicron is causing infections in vaccinated people which means that extra protection unvaccinated people had from the community being protected is no longer there,” Henry added. “If you don’t have vaccine on board right now…you’re a much higher risk even two or six weeks ago.”

While case numbers among vaccinated individuals remain high, the outcomes are often significantly less severe and come from a much larger pool of people. (BC Government)

What’s next?
Projections from public health indicate high case numbers and hospitalizations will continue in B.C. through the remainder of January before reducing and levelling off at a much lower rate by mid-February.

The province is looking to move away from specific case counts, given the fact many tests are being done at home or through private providers and not all positives are being reported to public health.

What officials can rely on are their own testing showing trends, along with the rates of people winding up in hospital.

A surge in hospital visits is being seen roughly a week after a similar surge in case counts

Dr. Henry also suggested there is an expectation the natural immunity from those who have gone through COVID as well as received a level of vaccination will be better post-Omicron than it was after Delta.

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