Thousands of voters return to the polls for the federal election. (Elections Canada)

By NanaimoNewsNOW Staff

Deja Vote 2019

Nanaimo-Ladysmith Riding Preview: Federal Election 2019

Sep 30, 2019 | 5:44 AM

NANAIMO — All eyes are once again on the Nanaimo-Ladysmith riding.

Their attention is drawn to one of only two Green Party MP’s, Paul Manly who won in the May federal byelection.

Political professor Allan Warnke told NanaimoNewsNOW the Manly win over NDP candidate Bob Chamberlin in what’s traditionally seen as an NDP stronghold marked a definite change in direction for the riding.

“I think this time around we can take a look at the Nanaimo-Ladysmith riding as very competitive. The Green incumbent, he’ll have to work hard to keep his riding. The NDP are still strong, there’s no way about it, but the Conservative strength surprised a lot of people…and it’s going to be a factor again this time as well.”

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The Green Party took more than 37 per cent of the vote in the byelection, which Warnke said was a shock.

The Conservative candidate John Hirst coming in second with nearly 25 per cent of the vote, upsetting the traditional thinking of the area as an NDP stronghold, was even more of a shock.

Warnke said it shows how diverse the large riding has become, with the Conservative base in north Nanaimo cementing itself and spreading lower into the riding, while large swathes of rural land in the south skew away from the NDP toward the Greens.

“(Manly’s) election was a shock but not when you start looking at the demographics of Nanaimo-Ladysmith.”

The 2016 census showed the average age of a Nanaimo resident is 45.5 years old, which is higher than the national average.

Warnke said he’s seen a significant boom of youth and young families coming to the harbour city, which could be one of the key factors in the election.

Though Manly would only have been in office for a few months, Warnke said the incumbent status should still play well in his favour.

“He didn’t do anything silly to suggest maybe that was just a fluke and he isn’t a credible candidate. People are going to say ‘The guy was only in there for a few months, he seems okay. Lets give him a full chance see what he can do.'”

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