A new report from Environment and Climate Change Canada says 2025 was among the hottest three years on record, with the trend not expected to cool off in the coming years. (Image Credit: Jordan Davidson/NanaimoNewsNOW)

By Jordan Davidson

heat is on

‘Can’t really be viewed as good news:’ 2025 third hottest year on record, with more heat expected

Jan 21, 2026 | 4:27 PM

NANAIMO — It’ll likely be one of the hottest years on record, a trend expected to continue for at least the next five years.

That’s according to the latest report from Environment and Climate Change Canada, which said global mean temperatures in 2026 are expected to be between 1.35 and 1.53 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels, the 13th consecutive year where temperatures are at least 1.0 degrees above those levels.

Research scientist Bill Merryfield said steadily rising global temperatures, driven by heat-trapping fossil fuel emissions, got a boost in 2023 and 2024 from a strong El Niño weather pattern, a natural climate warming phase.

“These recent years, particularly last year and this year, is they were both La Niña winters to start the year, and despite that, and the fact that La Niña usually causes a dip in global temperatures, we’re really not seeing that dip, it’s really more of a matter of holding steady.”

Merryfield said El Niño weather patterns tend to bring in warmer air to the West Coast, likely making next winter on Vancouver Island warmer-than-average.

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This continues the trend after 2025 ended with one of the warmest Decembers on record in Nanaimo.

“Vancouver Island has indicated an incease in average temperature, around one and half to two degrees since the late 1940s, but that said, there is a weak El Niño this winter which usually brings a cooling influence to our part of the world; we haven’t seen that so far, although that could change since the effects…tend to persist well into spring.”

He said they’re expecting the weather pattern to shift back into an El Niño pattern later in the year, peaking by the middle of next winter.

That would put it behind 2024’s record-breaking warmth but in the same range as the next two hottest years, 2023 and 2025, with early indications showing 2027 could set a new high temperature mark.

Climate modelling forecasts indicate the five-year stretch starting in 2026 is expected to be the hottest on record.

Merryfield says models indicate there is a 12% chance this year will exceed Paris Agreement temperature thresholds of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, and a 99% chance that this year will be hotter than every year on record before 2023.

According to the report, Canada is warming at more than twice the global rate, and even faster in the north.

“We’re studying and monitoring what’s happening, and I think, overall, it can’t really be viewed as good news for the planet by any means,” said Merryfield.

— with files from Jon de Roo, 97.3 The Eagle and The Canadian Press.

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