With warmer-than-average conditions and less precipitation seen in November, meteorologists say the chances of a white Christmas in Nanaimo are slim. (File photo/NanaimoNewsNOW)

By Jordan Davidson

Island winter

‘Can’t rule that out:’ slim chance of a white Christmas for the Nanaimo area

Dec 2, 2025 | 10:47 AM

NANAIMO — Weather experts are saying the chances of a white Christmas for the mid-Island remain low.

It’s the prevailing opinion according to meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada Derek Lee, who said if November is any indication, there is little chance of snow on the ground by the end of December.

“The confidence is very low right now, so unfortunately, I can’t say whether there is going to be snow on Christmas or not. Most of the time, the white Christmas forecast for Nanaimo is quite low anyway for December, but I can’t rule that out.”

Lee said looking back at November, the average daily temperature was 6.7 degrees Celsius for the greater Nanaimo area, a little over a full degree warmer than usual.

Precipitation-wise, Nanaimo saw only 62 per cent of its regular rainfall, a bit over 123 millimetres, which Lee said was a common story for much of Vancouver Island.

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He said to expect typical weather conditions for the first half of December, but there’s a small chance things could get a little cooler mid-month.

“This is always the question for coastal areas of B.C., because naturally living by the water, there’s always going to be some warm air coming in from the Pacific, so I would say that colder-than-normal might extend into the interior, but it really takes a lot for it to come out to the coast and to Nanaimo.”

He said colder temperatures and snow are expected for much of the Prairies and eastern Canada, but warm, ocean air from the Pacific usually deflects the colder air before it reaches Vancouver Island.

Weather systems with intense and potentially damage-causing winds are more difficult to predict, but usually impact the mid-Island more frequently than snowstorms.

“Wind storms we definitely can’t predict that far ahead, unfortunately, but I think we might be probably safe from extreme snowfall for now… I don’t see much wind either for the first half of December at least, but hard to say what happens in the latter half.”

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