By Canadian Press

Power of 2023 Atlantic hurricanes depends on outcome of El Niño versus global warming

May 25, 2023 | 11:54 AM

HALIFAX — The Canadian Hurricane Centre says forecasting the ferocity of hurricanes off Canada’s East Coast this year is difficult because of competing factors in the global climate.  

Meteorologist Bob Robichaud says much depends on whether this season’s El Niño — characterized by above-average water temperatures over the Pacific Ocean — has its usual calming impact on the Atlantic waters. 

Robichaud says that in El Niño years, high-altitude winds that blow toward the Atlantic Ocean have decreased the number of storms in waters off Canada’s eastern shores.

However, the forecaster for the federal agency says it’s not known yet whether the impact of an El Niño in 2023 will be countered by the human-caused warming of the Atlantic, which has increased the frequency and intensity of storms.

Earlier today, the U.S.-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted one to four major storms this hurricane season, where winds could be stronger than 177 kilometres per hour.

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Robichaud says the agency’s number is in line with historical averages of three major storms during the June 1 to Nov. 30 season in the Atlantic.

But he adds that it takes just one storm to create havoc, reminding that hurricane Fiona took three lives, destroyed houses, and knocked out power to more than 600,000 homes and businesses when it made landfall in the Atlantic region Sept. 24, 2022. 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 25, 2023.

The Canadian Press