Trading politics: University runs market to predict provincial election results
VANCOUVER — After 20 years of running election stock markets, Prof. Werner Antweiler believes the buying and selling of shares in political parties is a more accurate way of predicting election results than public opinion polling.
Antweiler teaches at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business and runs its online election market, where people use cash to buy contracts or “shares” representing political parties ahead of provincial or federal elections.
Traders can take long positions, which means buying shares in parties they think will grow in value, or short positions where they buy shares they think are overvalued. Outcomes are all tied to real election results and traders are allowed to spend between $25 and $1,000.
Election markets raise the stakes compared with traditional public opinion polls, which can be influenced by personal bias on the outcome, Antweiler said.