A checklist for watching the U.S. election: key times, races, issues to watch
WASHINGTON — Key times: First state polls close at 7 p.m. ET, including Georgia and Virginia. That’s followed at 7:30 p.m., with results from the key states of North Carolina and Ohio. At 8 p.m., it’s make-or-break for Trump: must-win Florida and Pennsylvania are among more than a dozen states up next. Another dozen-plus come in at 9 p.m., notably Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan. Four more close at 10 p.m., including Iowa and Nevada. Winner will likely be officially declared after 11 p.m., when California and four others come in.
Keys to victory: Clinton enters as the favourite, not only because she leads most polls but because she has an easier path. If she wins either Florida or Pennsylvania, she’s almost unstoppable. Trump probably needs Florida, along with Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, and either Michigan or Pennsylvania — with neither of the latter having voted Republican in decades.
Congress: Republicans will retain some control — it’s unclear how much. They’re believed to have a lock on their majority in the House of Representatives, with its 435 local districts all up for re-election. They could lose the Senate, where Democrats have a chance to pick up the four or five seats they’ll need for a majority. That’s because of the way the Senate is elected: in statewide races, in six-year cycles. That means the states up for grabs now were last chosen in 2010, a Republican wave year and a midterm race where Democratic turnout was low. Now it’s Democrats playing offence. They’d probably have a majority if they won five seats out of Illinois, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin.
What a small Senate majority means to a president: The ability to appoint cabinet members, ambassadors, administration officials, and judges to most courts — because the Senate did away with a 60-per-cent filibuster threshold for those positions in 2013, nicknamed “the nuclear option.” Their party would also control committees, which send legislation and Supreme Court nominees to the floor for a full vote.